Institutional Data
Primary-Source Supply Chain and Electricity Demand Data
A point-in-time panel of weather-normalized US electricity demand and global logistics activity, built for systematic research.
Live production output
What we manufacture
01
EIA hourly demand
Public hourly metered electricity demand for eight US grid regions enters as the raw input.
02
Weather normalization
Monthly fitted coefficients remove heating and cooling load, leaving the demand attributable to underlying activity.
03
Sector split
A sector split isolates commercial and data center demand.
04
Scored series
Regional readings are baselined, scored, and combined into a GDP-weighted national series.
Public EIA hourly demand enters; a proprietary, patent-pending transformation produces the series: weather normalization with monthly fitted coefficients, then a sector split isolating commercial and data center demand. Patent application filed December 2025. Coefficient values and calibration parameters are not published.
The panel
Proprietary series across US commercial electricity demand (8 grid regions), data center hub zone demand, a global disruption composite, ports and chokepoints, trade corridors, country customs friction, and freight rate pressure. Delivered via REST API, CSV, and an MCP server listed in the official MCP Registry.
| Series family | Series | Cadence |
|---|---|---|
| US commercial electricity demand (8 grid regions) | Hourly | |
| Data center sub-region demand | 5 | Daily |
| Global disruption composite and pillars | 5 | Every 15 minutes |
| Ports and chokepoints | 49 | Every 2 hours |
| Airports | 59 | Every 15 to 30 minutes |
| Trade corridors | 10 | Every 2 hours |
| Country customs friction | 21 | Daily |
| Freight rate indices | 4 | Daily |
Validation and integrity
Signals are tested against a pre-registered statistical bar: Granger F-test on first-differenced, stationarity-checked series, p at or below 0.01, directional accuracy at or above 55 percent, reverse causality testing, and pandemic-supercycle exclusion. In the governing retest of July 2026, 16 registered signals were tested: 11 passed, 4 failed and 1 could not be tested. Three are cleared for external claims. Failures are recorded, not hidden, and only signals that pass are used in external claims.
Two further signals meet the same standard for external claims but are derived from a series not currently published.
Lead validated relationship
Commercial electricity demand leads total US manufacturing output by one month.
F, p and directional accuracy are the values of record from the July 2026 retest; base rate and information coefficient were computed in September 2026. Full validation record available on request.
Source observations have been captured by SupplyMaven since April 2024. Composite index series are computed live in the current production platform from early 2026; earlier index history is methodology-consistent reconstruction computed from stored source observations and is labeled as such wherever delivered. When a published value is restated, the value it replaces is kept in a dated, append-only record.
Engagement path
Evaluation follows a structured path.
- 01Sample extract with data dictionary and full validation record
- 02Researcher evaluation on your timeline
- 0390-day paid pilot, credited in full against a first-year license
- 04Non-exclusive annual licensing with capacity-limited distribution
Licenses include quarterly methodology and domain-context sessions with the founder.
Scott Sage, Founder
scott.sage@supplymaven.com